Mohamed Muse
Saturday - September 11, 2021
This piece of writing
is trying to script some of analysis is what is happening in Afghanistan and
what can be learned from the onset. Situation is tightening its firm grip in
Afghanistan. Every country, be in with the advance stable democracy and with
stable security, but could be overwhelmed by such kind of situation caused by
unpredictable crisis. What media is reporting from Afghan is disturbing, though
yet with no significant civilian casualties. Difficulties in this regard is
bearing the fruit of sudden withdrawal of US-NATO. This has ravaging the
country like no any other thing living in the memory. Taliban have gained
grounds in all over the towns and districts in the country while Afghan
security forces were massively retreating their positions which demonstrates
grieving circumstances, despite billions of dollars spending to support and training
the Afghan forces since 2001 when US troops and NATO forced out Taliban from
power.
Are they
significantly stronger than before? What’s motivate their fast move to capture
towns or district including capital Kabul, is what could be described local
support of Afghan population who lives in the areas controlled by Taliban.
However, some have reportedly fled or internally displaced because of the
fight, fear of their lives to be in danger, and reached in Kabul, also some
have left from the capital, including the president as reported. The withdrawal
of the alliance forces after 20 years without prior plan to make necessary
arrangement for Afghan forces to take full responsibility of their security. This
could be disbelieving to so many, because BBC reported on 13 August 2021, that
only in one day, five provincial capitals fells into Taliban hands which show
how quickly things have changed with notwithstanding of human tragedy of loss
lives, broken families, and scared community. Significant social and economic
changes caused by the fast-moving fight could further be persist for more
swiftly than that’s expected.
Despite long battel
and conflict affected Afghanistan, along with presence of major foreign
security forces, the argue is that why now this has triggered the re-emergence
of Taliban fast moving to capture the capitals, and districts, if they have
been drove out or weakened their capabilities to carry out massive operations,
which’s also so quick to work on. Apparently, to me this is an evidence of how
a little contribution to peace and security of a country by foreign forces like
Afghanistan, can make little changes to peace, because the engagement of
corporate social responsibility will never be a productive in specific context.
Since the local communities play an essential role in promoting and sustaining
peace and security, they need engaged to fill the security gab in their own
country for ensuring a lasting peace, but seems that did not happen in
Afghanistan over the past 20 years, and yet it was only to keep them at pay. Now,
Taliban is in control all over Afghanistan, called the war in Afghan is over,
and soon willing to declare Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Difference between ALshabaab and Taliab
Even though Taliban
use the Alqa’ada style for their attacks, but they don’t show attacking and
killing foreigners in Afghanistan and local population or civilians, and
military inside their country, like what Al-Shabaab does in Somalia. The likelihood
that they carryout terrorist attacks in the homeland of those foreign troops
were remain uninterested, but again it cannot be denied that they have networks
pursuing to exploit opportunities to make Taliban immediate international
terrorists. But then again, they use guerrilla tactics to threaten countries of
the foreign troops staying in Afghanistan, nonetheless sometimes those who
linking to the Pakistani Taliban
group, which is distinct from the Afghan Taliban, and has a record of involvement
in international terrorism. TTPs also remain
potential to revitalize the current crisis make use of it in Pakistan and wider
region, because Afghanistan -Pakistan ties and future stability in the region.
The international cooperation between US, Pakistan, and NATO sometimes pressure
Taliban to carry out activities in the foreign countries and its leadership who
willing to negotiate their political agenda with those foreign countries. Trump
administration has directly engaged with Taliban, which means they are not in state
department’s list of international terrorists. On the other hand, Al-Shabaab in
Somalia continue targeting to carry out attacks against regional peacekeeping
forces (AMISOM), Somalia National Army, civilians, foreigners, by claiming are
Islamist group fighting to defend Islamic religion and occupational forces in
Somalia, which has nothing to do with local civilians and Somali people as
whole. So, support to both group either by civilian population or international
actors remain different because of their ideological difference, their strength
in manpower, and that why Al-Shabaab may not able to have that fast-moving
attacks against government forces, and civilians after the AU-led mission
leaves Somalia late 2021.
What Somalia can Learn from What is Happening in
Afghanistan
Somalia Should Strengthen its Army Forces (SNA)
The current situation
in Afghanistan shows that how the country’s security forces (military) have not
been prepared to manage a large scale, and influx attacks from Taliban or any internal
and external threats, and be able to deploy multiple and separate combatants.
This was unexpected for them the pull out of US and NATA troops with
unprecedent arrangements and is a living instance to take advantage by other
fragile states or countries that relies foreign troops for their national
security. That’s why its good time for Somalia to take this a serious lesson
for its own forces and reinforce structurally for its own forces. Ensure to
avoid internal division within the security forces which can make their job and
working together very difficult
Federal Government to Engage with UNSC to Lift
Army Embargo so that SNA can be well Equipped and can Battle Both Internal and External
threats.
SNA to be more
effective, their military arsenals and necessary equipment be supportive to the
forces, and stand stronger to their own foots. The federal government of
Somalia (FGS) should engage thoroughly with the UNSC and request to lift the
long overdue arms embargo in the country, but the leaders should demonstrate
leadership and accountable on this by qualifying their case through the lessons
that can be learned from Afghanistan, but also presenting clear plan on how the
weapons have been managed over the last few years, and how it will going to be controlled
the incoming weapons, and prevent not be diverted into the wrong hands. The FGS
leaders must use its diplomatic challenges that could assist their voice to be
perceived, and in the meantime, they must use the necessary resource/tools available
to them and mobilise its manpower to ensure they are ready for quick
reinforcement in when required and where required of the battle field.
Initiate an Effective Dialogue with Al-Shabaab:
Does Al-Shabaab
intent to start negotiation with Somali government and the people of Somalia, since
they have kill so many, devastated a lot of properties, causes many families to
loss for loved once, and they also loss a lot. To safe remains, government
should demonstrate willingness, leadership, and initiate how in the best
options to bring those Al-Shabaab militants into the negotiation table to end
the ongoing human casualties and stop further loss of lives. If not, what’s the
alternate (militarily), is the government ready to crash them militarily and
put a lot of pressure so that those who are wishing to surrender, they will
have to do so, others will escape from the offensive, and at least they can be
in deep collapse. However, the last options require a something big to reality,
like that drives in one morning that feeds you an energy (leadership). In terms
of asking questions, such as ‘what do we have on ground, and what we don’t
have’, so forces will have something clear for their priorities and activities
that needs to be achieved within short period of time.
Whether it will be a
benchmark or not, there should always be a commitment to overcome endless
tasks, and its associate process but only within the available tools and
resources. Yet, its depends on what’s being planned to construct a good start
from an hour, daily, weekly, and monthly to achieve certain goals, and that’s
what I mean when I am talking about (militarily), this can only be done when
action is taken by the believing leader with specific goals in mind. Thus, does
SNA ready to follow this worthy own way, in order not to wait to be like the
situation in Afghanistan today.
Ensure AMISOM to Implement Transition of
security responsibility to Somali National Army.
Turning out to be
quicker and paves the way a good and proper transition from AMISOM to SNA, it’s
important that government leaders to ensure building a good relationship
between civil society and security sector which is fundamental to human
security and help the fight against Al-Shabaab militants, if no negotiation
option is available. Because, civilians view security forces with suspicious, and
perceiving them as predators rather than protectors, and that’s why civilians
in Afghanistan cooperated with Taliban to take over the country. Also, the
relationship between the civil society and security forces could be a well
administered problem and would further help corporation between security forces
and civil society as part of local ownership in security sector. This will assist
Somalia to use logic local ownership techniques in the security sector ‘’who
assesses, who plans, who implements, and who evaluates’’, so the country will
not turn into like Afghanistan and ready set the preparation in such significant
security implications, in pacifying that SNA will capable to hold grounds after
AMISOM exists from the country.
Fighting for Corruption and at Same Time Promote
and Encourage National Army to Motivate Them.
Somalia should learn
from areas of military
and police community engagement strategies, in the failed
Afghanistan where
the security is aiming to build relationships with the community, civil-military coordination, protection of
civilians, negotiation, and good governance, requires capacity to help the
military and police understand civil society and their approaches to human
security. Create significant opportunities to promote
fundamental changes that could decrease inequalities, strength social network
relations, and improve state-society relations.
Clan issues that Al-Shabaab Uses as a Power:
Increase government
commitments to address recurrent clan issues such as clan conflicts which in
the meantime does not happen the areas controlled by Al-Shabaab and uses as
power of human security. Strength to use traditional mechanisms that serve as a
veneer to cover systematic problems such as clan corrupt behaviours that
enables the security threats to endanger both political and economic interest
of the country. The government should ensure to prioritize the local security
needs, and identify security infrastructure gabs. Pay great attention to the
community reconciliation to the coexistence of divided communities and the
building of the trust.
Strategic Dialogue within the Government:
The diverse stakeholders must participate in broader of the policy-making and programming of the security
sector. Involving just a handful of local elite men in a consultation cannot
yield an accurate picture of the interests or needs of all social groups in
society. It’s important that government should engage every individual in society, from children
to elders, males and females, working in every sector of the society, with different levels of education,
religious beliefs, economic status, and with diverse gender, because these will
add a meaningful to local ownership. Strength government oversight and engagement mechanisms withits institutions
and activities that provide citizens the ability to contribute, influence and
control security sector policies and programming. Information sharing
is very important when it comes to human security, because government could
identify threats from Al-Shabaab, but that only happen when civil society also
identify Al-Shabaab threats to the government, so they would maintain peace
together.
Political Stability to Avoid AS to Take
Advantage from the Existing Security Gabs.
Somali people and
their government will for ever not rely on outsiders to take care the national government, instead
they must attempt rebuild themselves, local groups should collaborate to use their own incentives or the time to build coalitions among
themselves to form the national government they want. This would assist the emergence of stable and functional
governance in the long run and could prevent country to get trapped by a
new violence. As, without outside intervention, goverment leaders at
both levels and political stakeholders must take greater incentive to build broad coalitions
between social groups to improve state society relations, and issue of
relevance in this kind of relationship building among local groups in negotiating with
each other to change in identifying common ground proposals and platforms that is essential to country’s sustainable peace. Then, without such
robust local efforts, the security gains made in the last 20 years may simply
fail, just like what’s happen now in Afghanistan.
Somalia should learn
about and identify what has been in the security sector challenges and gabs
that dictated Taliban had used to achieve so much of its current activities and
capture all the territories in Afghanistan including capital Kabul, and be
prepared to prevent and detect Al-Shabaab not to copy and paste in Somalia for
that enduring tactics.
Mohamed Muse
Professional/Interested
in the areas of peace and security/sustainable peace:
Twitter: @MohamedMuse9