by Mohamed Omar Mohamud "Hajibeso"
Monday, March 01, 2010
Sheikh Sharif Ahmed came to power because of the Somali people support him; unfortunately, he has totally lost at this moment. Mr. Sharif has the support of the international community led by the U.S, but not the majority of the Somali people. Four years ago, he rallied the entire country against Mr. Abdullah Yusuf and the Ethiopian army.
In his own words, in a VOA report, he said: “We are telling the international community that we view this draft resolution as nothing more than an effort to help Ethiopia take over our country. If the United Nations backs this resolution, I promise you that there will be an all-out war in the Horn of Africa.”
I am sure the majority of the Somali people are confused with him as I am. Recently, the President made a deal with Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamee’a faction in order to gain their full military support. (Ahlu Sunna militia has been fighting against Al Shabaab expansion in the central regions since 2008, mainly in the Galgadud region.)
President Sharif promised them five Cabinet posts, including one important Ministry such as Defense, Finance, or Foreign Affairs. This deal was highly praised by a number of TFG Cabinet members.
Like a true politician, Mr. Sharif is essentially using his presidential powers to gain the support of Ahlu Sunna militia, though; his bargaining chip is nothing but a disguise. Actually, it is another approach to have the Ethiopians return to Somalia, both politically and military.
When former Somali President Abdullah Yusuf resigned under international pressure in Dec. 2008, the Ethiopian troops withdrew from southern Somalia under the so-called “Djibouti Agreement” that led to Sheikh Sharif’s election as TFG President in Jan. 2009. The Ethiopian government used the “Djibouti Agreement” as an international justification to pullout of Somalia and Addis Ababa declared “Mission Accomplished.”
Yet, the Ethiopians never wanted to leave Somalia. They lost nearly all close associates and informants within the TFG in Mogadishu after following President Sharif's victory, which further undermined Somali politicians that were deeply connected to Addis Ababa during ex- President Yusuf’s term. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was compelled into an alternative option. Consequently, the Ethiopian government is the same foe as before, and Mr. Sharif, who is desperate for power, remains to be without a friend. Moreover, the Ethiopians are using Mr. Sharif who is doomed to failure to their advantage to control Somali political affairs once again. Recently, international donor groups informed Mr. Sharif that if change were not implemented soon, they too would stop financially backing his government. As a result, Sheikh Sharif seems to be looking for alternative options as well by adopting the Arab concept, “Enemy of my enemy is my friend."
On the contrary, one thing that cannot be negotiated in Somalia is the political system currently in place. The TFG establishment is based on the “4.5 Formula” which was designed to balance the clans, contribute to representation and influence of power in Somalia between the four major clan- and coalition of minority clans. The 4.5 Formula was initiated at a previous reconciliation conference held in Djibouti in 2000. The Ethiopians claim historically this type of power-sharing method was successful in uniting their many ethnic groups, and Mr. Ghelle, the President of Djibouti, encouraged this division of power.
Will President Sharif use the 4.5 Formula when appointing Cabinet posts to Ahlu Sunna members joining the TFG? When Mr. Sharif’s opposition group joined the TFG, all new parliament seats were divided under the rules of the 4.5 Formula.
It remains to be seen how the TFG-Ahlu Sunna deal will be implemented in Somalia. This is a big challenge for Mr. Sharif, a relatively young leader in Somali politics. If he succeeds to incorporate the Ethiopian-backed Ahlu Sunna faction into his government, then it will help him extend his term for the time being; on the other hand, it will give his opposition a cause to continue their violent disagreement against the establishment of the TFG, even if he steps down from the presidency
If he persuades enough domestic stakeholders, he will be closer to achieve victory, but short-range achievement, since his only focus is on Ahlu Sunna. As Somali President, Mr. Sharif should reach out to all the clans and promote a national interest, instead of focusing on a dysfunctional group like Ahlu Sunna. In contrast, he has not visited the pro-government regions of Puntland in northeast Somalia; Matter of fact, the TFG under President Sharif treats Puntland’s’ regional government as competitor for donor aid and international support.
The majority of the Somali people see Mr. Sharif as worse then his previous predecessors. He has not taken any firm stand concerning the internal affairs of the Somalis. Somali people will strongly support a president who is tolerant, and attain to win the heart and the mind of the Somali people, above all, independent from any outside influence regarding the interest of Somali people. More importantly, Somali Peoples needs a president whose goals include conveying peace to Somalia rather than thinking how to stay in power for decades.
Mohamed Omar Mohamud "Hajibeso" is a Seattle-based Somali community advocate. He can be reached at: [email protected]