Hiiraan Online

But US support, and indeed a western support may not be forthcoming. The reason is to establish a strong Somali government that can restore peace and stability to Somalia is not agreeable with the long established US foreign policy for supporting Ethiopian hegemony in Eastern Africa. Since the Somali independence in early 1960’s US maintained a foreign policy based on “Ethiopian interests first” for strategic reasons of their own. United States considers Ethiopia a reliable and strategic partner in Africa similar to Israel in the Middle East. Any support for Somalia must be green-lighted by Ethiopia or at least convinced by the US State department that it is good for Ethiopia.

The long held dream and interest of Ethiopia has always been a weak government in Somalia; one over which it can exercise some control over it. When January 27, 1991 the Somali state was about to collapse no intervention or pressure was exerted to unite the advancing Somali rebels to the capital Mogadishu. The United States and Somalia’s former colonial masters UK and Italy acted indifferent to the looming chaos. The US, the reigning world super power evacuated their embassy personnel and watched on the sideline as Somalia disintegrated into a civil war.

Four moths after the Somali state collapse Ethiopia was crumbling in similar fashion but disorder and chaos was averted by United States. Like Somalia, in May 27, 1991 a multitude of rebels EPRDF, EPLF, OLF, EPDA, TPMM and seven other rebel groups came to the gates of Addis Ababa. The US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Herman J. Cohen was frantically working around the clock to avert what has taken place moths earlier in Mogadishu. He succeeded in organizing a hastily peace conference which concluded the strongest rebel groups agreeing to a common leadership and common front. The US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs was also successful in convincing the resignation of the caretaker president not to mention forcing the former president to leave and go in exile. The intervention was not done because the US and European allies learned lessons from the Somali disaster but was very well in line the long held foreign policy based on establishing proxy powers within African continent to continue furthering US and European powers.

The US, UK, Italy and other Europeans are all complicit the perpetual civil war in Somalia to continue even though they may say publicly they want a stable Somalia. Their actions prove the contrary. Take for example, in 2006 when the population got tired the kidnapping, extortion and thievery of the warlord gangs and formed a coalition called Islamic Courts Union. A coalition of Sufis, Islamist moderates and radicals, concerned civilians, peace activists, women organizations and armed fighters liberated Mogadishu and south and central Somalia establishing peace and stability not seen in Somalia in two decades. The United States and its allies helped Ethiopia under the cover of “war on terror” and tacit approval of the United Nations to invade Somalia. The western powers provided air power, training, logistics, and weapons to Ethiopia. It is widely reported by western media that US and British special operations was imbedded within the Ethiopian ground troops. The US and its NATO allies closed the air and sea and the neighboring countries were told to seal off their borders. As a result of this operation 10,000 Somalis have lost their lives and 1.5 million were made homeless. The only hope that could have established a reasonable clean government, a movement capable enough restoration of effective government was destroyed.

The ICU was overthrow and their remnants were divided into distinctive groups each with the unmistakable DNA of foreign hands behind them and with the knowledge that reconciliation between the warring factions would remain hopeless dream. The Ethiopians withdrew overnight as they came, leaving behind a more dangerous extremists for the Somalis to sort them out. Incidentally, these left behind terrorists are no threat to Ethiopia but are strategic partners. Many Somalis wonder if these are Ethiopian offspring fighting on their behalf to make sure weak government one over which Ethiopia can exercise some control over it be there.  And for good measure UNISOM troops which Somalis call “HA DHIMAN HANA NOOLAAN” “do not die and do not live” was placed in strategic locations within Mogadishu. Their existence to keep things as they should be a “weak government in Somalia and one over which Ethiopia can exercise some control over it”.  

The Sharmarke’s call for restoration of “effective government and the training of national security forces” will not materialize as it is incompatible with the long held US foreign policy and that of Ethiopia. The Somali leaders have paid frequent homage to Addis Ababa regime to show they should not be feared but that genuine offer apparently is not enough for Ethiopia and their allies. The US foreign policy has not changed for the last forty years and the perpetual civil war will continue for the foreseeable future. The civil war is not going to be tribal as has been in the past but could be changed from tribalism to religion and from religion to regionalism and back again. The Somali situation is not accidental as many would have you to believe but a long siege designed to keep this small country a “weak government one over which Ethiopia can exercise some control over it”.  The question is can Sharmarke and Sharif alters the status quo or they will sit there until their time runs out and be called the former President and Prime Minister of Somalia.

If the duos Sharif and Sharmarke want to have any chance of altering the status-quo and change of this tyrannical policy, their thinking must change and realize that no help is on the way. Help can only come within and the untapped energy of their Somali population. But they cannot tap to this energy without honest inside look of their administration. They should purge all former warlords from their administration and make sure all offices of government organs are run by people like the ministers massacred at Hotel Shaamow such as Somali Health Minister Qamar Aden Ali, Education Minister Ahmed Abdullahi Waayeel, and Higher Education Minister Professor Ibrahim Hassan Adow and wounded Sports minister Suleyman Olad Roble. 

They must install people with unassailable characters uncorrupted by greed, tribalism and other “ism” in all government institution and offices. If they do that, they have a good chance of altering the status-quo. If that cannot be done and cartoonist like Amin Amir continue to depict the feelings of the general public with “Milking the cow” cartoon or the President  is seen jetting around with dubious characters and former warlords, I am afraid  any chance for changing the course of Somalia will remain a wishful thinking.