by Muuse Yuusuf
Friday, February 19, 2010
It was just few months back when “Islamist” forces of Al-Shabaab and Xisbul Islam were being portrayed as a united force capable of dislodging the feeble transitional unity government from Mogadishu. At the time around May-June last year their leaders seemed to be united under the banner of a “holy war” against what they described as occupying forces of AMISOM and an infidel and stooge government that was imposed by the west. Analysts mistakenly believed that the combined forces of “Islamists” would soon overthrow the government and then would take control of the south to impose their strict Sharia law in Somalia.
Remember those days when Mogadishu residents were being terrorised by indiscriminate shelling and were forcibly displaced from their homes by the warring factions? Remember the suicide bombing in Beletweyne that killed Omar Hashi, minister of security? Remember the frantic calls by the speaker of the parliament for an urgent international regional military intervention within 24 in order to bolster the government?
Well I am sure my readers don’t suffer from amnesia and are able to remember of the events that had happened last year. But the point here is that how at the time the media seemed to lump together “Islamists” as a one formidable and undividable force that was united under one ideology, and had one common enemy, namely TFG/AMISOM. That description was a typical characterisation by the media of social movements in a tribal society like Somalia where social movements are so divided that one could hardly describe them as a one united organic force.
Divided and disintegrated as ever? |
As we now know “Islamists” have failed their first mission, after the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, which was to topple the government in order to derail the peace and reconciliation process and also to expel the AMISOM contingent from capital. Although their combined forces, coming from remote places as Kismayo, were put together in order to defeat the enemy, they were proven wrong and the government stayed put and survived the coup. Also, other Islamist forces “Ahlusuna Wal Jama” have successfully defended central regions from Mudug to Galgaduud.
With that failed mission, “Islamist” forces had spent most of their energy and meagre resources. In other words, power, vigour, enthusiasm, and resources allocated to their “Jihadist” agenda had been exhausted. It is now obvious from open sources that these forces are divided, weaker and don’t have enough resources (money and manpower). It is now clear from their recent behaviours that these forces are so exhausted that they can only manage to launch few hit-and-run operations against TFG/AMISOM forces, and few suicide bombings. Also, public support is waning due to their draconian laws, which seem to alienate people. The question now is how and where to get resources? Exploit traditional clan allegiance and loyalty? Well if that is the case then their “Islamic cause” will be thrown out of the window and their real identities will be revealed.
Another important fact that came out of the conflict is that once they have failed their mission, it was not long before it became clear that these “Islamist” forces did not have or share a rock-solid ideological base that could unite them forever. Once they did not succeed in destroying their enemy, they turned their guns against each other. The question is; what has happened to the “Islamist/Jihadist” rhetoric that was their banner? It seems that concept is now dead and irrelevant.
Few months, not years, were enough to expose the fragility of their “unity” under one “ideology” if any.
Is astonishing to see how friends who, just few months back, used to call each other fellow Muslims who were united under “Jihad” against invaders are not only now split up among themselves but now accuse each other of being heretic, infidel and anti-Islamic. One wonders if Islam cannot unite these forces what else on earth can unite them!!
The friction and hostility within “Islamist” forces became public knowledge when Al-Shabab and Xisbul Islam fought over the control of the strategic town of Kismayo. One of the contended issues was who gets what and how much with regard to millions of dollars generated from the sea port. Also, the divisive clan politics is simmering and boiling up underneath and is out there to undermine "Islamists" efforts to represent Islam as a unifying and common denominator. Despite “agreements” to stop hostilities, as you read this article tension remains high and they are still fighting in Dhoobley, the lower Juba region.
With the defection of Hassan Turk, a member of the Xisbul Islam, to Al-Shabab is clear evidence that Xisbul Islam is now dead and one can only wait its funeral day. Recent interviews with Hassan Dahir Aweys revealed a man who is now desperate, exhausted and is struggling to continue with his “Jihadist” and anti-TFG rhetoric. A man who realised that the public will not buy his ideology anymore. He sounded like a man who had realised his mistakes for launching a war against his fellow Muslim friends. Someone who had given up and the only thing he can hope is that history will be kind to him, and his name will be recorded as a national hero like that Sheikh Hassan Barsane, a status he cannot ever reach because this man is fighting against his fellow Muslim friends, and his motive is really for political power.
I cannot help but to compare the “Islamist” forces in Somalia with those Taliban hardliners who are right now being chased away from Afghanistan by the international community and whose days are numbered. One wonders why similar action could not be taken against these disgruntled “Islamists” in Somalia whose stardom is now falling fast. It is a shame that the TFG cannot or is unable to use the division within the “Islamist” groups as window of opportunity to garner public support in order to defeat the enemy. But the question is what kind of vision can the TFG offer to Somalis except the usual rhetoric of implementing Sharia in a country where loyalty to kinship is more important than ideology?!!
Muuse Yuusuf
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