By CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO (email the author)
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Recently, the government cancelled the announcement of the interim census results. Turns out the Somalis might have been the reason.
The Star newspaper alleged that the number of Somalis had jumped from about 900,000 at the last census, to a dramatic 2.4 million, a record rise of over 260 per cent!
Kenya is also alleged to be swamped by “illegal” Somalis, beside the thousands of refugees who live in the country legally.
Recently, the police carried out a swoop in Nairobi’s Somali-dominated Eastleigh suburb to crack down on suspected supporters of the radical Islamist group, Al-Shabaab, which now controls large areas of Somalia and is pushing to oust the Kenya-backed transitional government.
But there is something “un-Kenyan” in all this. Kenya has traditionally had the most pragmatic and least ideologically driven foreign policy in the region (some even say its an amoral policy); which is why it was possible for both the talks that ended the 25-year-war in southern Sudan, and that established the transitional Somalia government, to take place in Nairobi.
Kenyan politicians and the military will also not have forgotten the Shifta war, the 1963-67 secessionist conflict where Somalis in the northern districts of Kenya attempted to join their fellow Somalis in a Greater Somalia.
Nairobi’s determination to keep the Somalis part of the country’s territory was left in no doubt by the firm hand with which it put down the rebellion.
One of the reasons for Kenya’s unease with Al-Shabaab is that it has revived talk of a Greater Somalia, with northern Kenya being part of it. Kenya has vowed to bloody Al-Shabaab’s nose if it tries to make good its threat to attack it to “liberate” the Somali part of the country.
It would, therefore, be rather foolish to give Al-Shabaab ammunition by carrying out an anti-Somali crusade at this time. For that reason, reports that Kenya is reaching out to Al-Shabaab cannot be entirely discounted.
The website, Mareeg.com, claims that the illegal Somalis who were rounded up in recent operations around were secretly handed by the Kenyan military to Al-Shaabab last Saturday morning at Dhobley.
Though there is no independent confirmation of this, that would be just the right low-level cost-free gesture that Kenya could make to Al-Shaabab.
If truth be told, Kenya might be better off with Al-Shaabab running the show in Somalia.
There are legitimate concerns about the Somali Islamists’ ties to the terrorist group, Al Qaeda, but of greater threat to Kenya is the social disorder that could break out if the anti-Somalia feelings run out of control.
To prevent that, the flow of Somalis into Kenya needs to be reduced or stopped; and an Al-Shaabab that ends the fractious conflict in the country would help a great deal.
Then, with the 2012 elections approaching, no politician would want to be seen to be anti-Somali. Yes, Somalis have become very wealthy, and with that, they have gained political clout.
Somali money has reached a point where it can buy or lose you an election in Kenya. There is, therefore, a need to sort out the issues of Somalia-Somalis, from those of Kenyan-Somalis.
And Kenyan pragmatists will realise that having an influential Somali constituency, can actually be diplomatic and political capital. We have probably reached a point where the long conflict in Somalia cannot be solved without the says-so of the Kenyan Somali community — and therefore the Kenya government.
Eastleigh is, regional observers argue, Somalia’s unofficial capital, and its money change bureaus its unofficial central bank.
The warlords and business people in Somalia are so vested in Kenya, that Nairobi actually has many ropes it can pull to influence their actions than it is doing.
If I were to bet, I would put my money on the pragmatists winning. Kenya has done well out of Somalia’s misery.
UN operations for Somalia, like that of dozens other humanitarian agencies, are headquartered in Kenya, bringing lots of dollars to the local economy and putting millions in the pockets of Kenyan suppliers.
Burdened by the aftershock of the 2008 post-election violence and one of the longest-running show of bickering in Africa, Kenya seems too distracted to realise that its Somali citizens — and Somalia’s troubles — are a boon, not a bane.
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