Saturday March 15, 2025
FILE - Puntland Minister of Information, Dirir, addresses the media during a press conference
Garowe (HOL) — Puntland authorities have raised alarms over Mogadishu's security, warning that the capital could face a scenario similar to Afghanistan's collapse following the U.S. withdrawal.
"Most American diplomats have been evacuated. We fear Mogadishu could face the same fate as Afghanistan," Puntland's Minister of Information, Dirir, said.
However, his assertion that most American diplomats have been evacuated is inaccurate. The March 4 alert led to the suspension of U.S. diplomatic personnel movements, warning of "credible information related to potential imminent attacks" across the country, including threats against Aden Adde International Airport.The State Department's Level Four travel advisory, warning against travel to Somalia, has been in effect since July 2024 due to ongoing threats, including terrorism, crime, and civil unrest.
Dirir's remarks follow escalating Al-Shabaab attacks across central and southern Somalia, with the militant group intensifying its offensive during Ramadan. The group has seized parts of the Middle Shabelle region, previously vacated by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).
Former National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) Deputy Director Abdisalam Guled recently warned that Al-Shabaab is shifting tactics to solidify control over regions outside Mogadishu. The group is adopting a governance model reminiscent of the Taliban in Afghanistan, seeking to gain public trust while tightening its grip on strategic areas like Hirshabelle.
Guled's warning contrasts with Somali Minister of Endowments and Religious Affairs Mukhtar Robow's reassurances. Robow dismissed fears that Mogadishu is at risk of falling to Al-Shabaab, asserting that the militants lack the operational capability to seize the capital. "Mogadishu is neither Kabul nor Damascus, and Ahmed Diiriye is no Ahmed Sharaac," Robow said, emphasizing that unity is key to defeating the insurgents.
Despite government assertions, Al-Shabaab's ability to launch coordinated attacks remains a pressing concern. In February, militants temporarily captured Balcad, a town just 30 km (19 miles) from Mogadishu, before being pushed back by government forces. The ease with which Al-Shabaab breached federal defences underscored the fragility of Somalia's counterinsurgency strategy.
Meanwhile, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has downplayed foreign concerns, describing them as "propaganda" and reaffirming that his administration is making significant progress against Al-Shabaab. He pledged intensified air and ground offensives to weaken the insurgency further.
Minister Robow and prominent Somali religious scholars have condemned Al-Shabaab's brutality and ideological extremism. At a recent press conference, Robow recounted how the group kidnapped his brother's wife, abandoning her infant child in the wilderness. Religious scholars, including Sheikh Ali Wajiis, have also denounced the militants' distortion of Islamic teachings, reinforcing efforts to delegitimize their influence.
Puntland's concerns over Mogadishu's security align with recent developments, including Al-Shabaab's territorial gains and the group's evolving insurgency tactics. While the Somali government remains adamant that the capital is secure, the growing number of attacks and international warnings suggest that the situation remains precarious.