Wednesday April 30, 2025
By Bashir Mohamed Hussein
Figure 1. Reported surveillance coverage of the radar (source: The Maritime Executive)
The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, vital arteries of global commerce, have become a volatile arena for competing geopolitical ambitions internationally. In this context, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), driven by its quest for economic dominance, regional influence, and desire to project power, has emerged as a key, albeit ambiguous, protagonist in the last decade, sometimes leaving an indelible mark on the region, particularly on the fractured landscape of Somalia. Admittedly, however, the UAE's engagement is not occurring in a vacuum. Its interventions are increasingly viewed as a strategic maneuver to counter and compete with other influential actors, including Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, and their respective regional or local allies, further complicating Somalia's already precarious position and exacerbating threats to its security and sovereignty.
The UAE's interests in the Horn and the Red Sea are multifaceted, driven by a potent blend of economic ambition, security concerns, and the desire for regional power projection. As it strives to become a global trade and logistics hub, the strategic importance of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea shipping lanes cannot be overstated. Targeted investments in Somali ports, such as Berbera in Somaliland and Bosaso in Puntland, allow the UAE to control vital maritime chokepoints. Beyond trade, the region's fragile political and security landscape provides an arena for countering perceived (or real) threats and regional rivals. Ultimately, the UAE seeks to establish itself as a key influencer, projecting its economic and military power to secure its not-always-transparent interests in a strategically vital part of the world.
Mixed Blessings and Burdens
For Somalia, the embrace of Emirati engagement has yielded a mixed bag of blessings and burdens. UAE investments in ports like Berbera and Bosaso have brought significant capital, infrastructure development, and job creation to these regions. Security assistance, notably the training and equipping of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), has contributed to the fight against piracy in the past and other evolving threats. However, concerns regarding Somalia's sovereignty and national unity often overshadow these benefits. The UAE's tendency to engage directly with regional states, bypassing the Federal Government in Mogadishu, fuels accusations of a divide-and-rule strategy, potentially undermining the central government's authority and hindering the arduous process of state consolidation.
The Emiratis are also known to have a varying degree of political, security and economic cooperation with different (politically) rival Somali administrations, including the Federal Government in Mogadishu, the separatist Somaliland administration, as well as the Puntland and Jubaland states of Somalia. By all intents and purposes, many Somali observers point out the fact that, despite being allegedly an ally of the top political echelon of all these rival Somali entities, whose leaders frequently travel to Abu Dhabi, the UAE has done little or nothing tangible to reconcile among its Somali partners to effectively contribute to the ongoing national reconciliation, societal cohesion and state-building efforts in Somalia.
Equally, critics argue that the economic benefits from Emirati investments in Somalia are also often skewed in favor of the UAE's interests, while the lack of transparency surrounding agreements breeds suspicion of exploitation and unfair terms for the Somali partners. The same could be said about the Turkish control over the main port and airport of the Somali capital, Mogadishu.
The apparent confluence of competing international geopolitical, geoeconomic, and security rivalries, projected onto Somali soil, is having a profoundly destabilizing effect. The long-running intra-Somali conflicts, particularly the paralyzing tension between the Federal Government in Mogadishu and Federal Member States like Puntland, are becoming even more intractable. External actors, each backing their preferred Somali administrations, fuel these divisions, hindering genuine progress toward national reconciliation and a unified and fully sovereign state.
Whose security matters the most?
The analysis by The Economist (April 16, 2025), highlighting the UAE's potentially divisive role in the region, provides a broader context for understanding the complexities of its engagement in Somalia as well.
For instance, the recent deployment of the controversial ELM-2084 radar in Puntland, as reported by BulgarianMilitary.com (April 14, 2025) and Middle East Monitor (April 15, 2025), while ostensibly serving the UAE's alleged security interests, risks further entrenching this fragmented reality, as it appears to be a unilateral arrangement with a regional entity, bypassing the authority of Mogadishu. With its alleged purpose of monitoring Houthi activities (Watan, April 21, 2025; The Maritime Executive, April 20, 2025), this deployment further underscores how Somalia's strategic location is being leveraged for the security objectives of external powers, potentially at its own expense. In this context, many Somalis pose the inescapable question: whose security matters the most in Somalia?
The introduction of sophisticated foreign military technology and the potential for Somalia to become a battleground in proxy conflicts complicate matters further. The general public, bearing the brunt of decades of conflict and instability, is very concerned about these latest developments and their likely implications for their safety and future development prospects. The hope for a unified, stable, and prosperous Somalia dims further under the shadow of these competing external agendas and the internal vulnerabilities they exploit.
On the other hand, the widely reported deployment of the ELM-2084 radar in the vicinity of the portal city of Bosaso, the economic hub of the Puntland state of Somalia, comes with serious potential security threats for Somalia in general and for Puntland state in particular. If confirmed, this can potentially mean Somalia being factually part of international conflict without the Somali people knowing anything about their country's newly acquired international belligerent status. Meanwhile, the deployment of the radar is also a tangible manifestation of this asymmetric international engagement, which underscores the delicate balancing act Somalia must perform to safeguard its sovereignty, peace, societal cohesion, and national unity amidst the jostling of powerful external actors. Compounding this perilous situation is the conspicuous silence emanating from Somali authorities in general, and the Puntland State government in particular, regarding these developments.
Likewise, the brazen, albeit apparently clandestine operation by its nature, import of the latest international proxy war has taken most Somalis by surprise. Unlike the other long-time-running geopolitical and geoeconomic foreign interferences, there has been very little public debate thus far on this specific incident. Specifically, the Somali media, and the wider civil society organizations, seem at this point in time a crucial missing link.
Circle of despair and disappointment
In a nation consistently ranked at the bottom of Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (CPI), the spectre of rent-seeking behavior among top public figures looms large. The competing foreign powers, with their considerable resources and strategic objectives, risk deepening this negative spiral. By cultivating relationships with pliable actors, they can incentivize corruption and undermine the prospects of good governance and socio-economic development. The net effect of this intricate web of external influence and internal weaknesses may manifest in the tragic perpetuation of perversive insecurity, further instability, and abject poverty for the Somali citizenry, as resources and attention are diverted towards securing foreign interests rather than addressing the fundamental needs of the population.
The circle of despair and disappointment for the Somali citizenry is further completed by weak or ineffective parliaments and ineffective watchdog agencies. These institutions, meant to provide oversight and accountability, often lack the capacity or the political will to challenge the actions of powerful external actors or hold local (political and economic) elites accountable for their dubious dealings. This institutional deficit creates a fertile ground for unchecked foreign influence and rent-seeking behavior on the part of the local elites, further eroding the trust of the Somali people in their own governance structures.
Bashir Hussein is a former Puntland Presidential Candidate. He is also a former Senior advisor to both the Puntland State and the Federal Government of Somalia