Saturday 26 April, 2025
By Abdirahsid Elmi & Mohamed Musa
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is facing an increasingly precarious future. Dr. Afyare Elmi, a respected authority on global security, recently underscored this fragile state in an article for the Middle East Council on Global Affairs—going so far as to question whether the FGS can survive at all. Several troubling trends lend weight to this concern. First, the government appears to have lost the trust and support of the Somali people, largely due to widespread incompetence and entrenched corruption. Second, the financial lifeline from international donors—vital to the day-to-day functioning of the government—is rapidly shrinking. Third, ongoing disputes and unresolved tensions with federal member states continue to deepen political fragmentation. These issues are further compounded by the absence of a clear electoral roadmap and, most critically, the growing security threat posed by a resurgent Al-Shabab insurgency. Yet, despite these mounting crises, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud continues to engage in frequent, seemingly aimless trips abroad. Still, his recent call for a national consultative meeting may represent a genuine opportunity to avert a looming disaster—if approached with seriousness, transparency, and inclusivity.
Why the consultative meeting matters
Since its establishment in Mogadishu in 2007, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has relied heavily on military, financial, and logistical support from the international community for its survival. Following the ousting of the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu by Ethiopian forces that same year, the newly formed FGS immediately faced a persistent and formidable insurgency from Al-Shabab. Lacking the capacity to build effective national security institutions, the government depended on international partners to fill the void. In response, a 30,000-strong multinational force was deployed to combat Al-Shabab and stabilize the capital. The United States, alongside the European Union, provided the bulk of the funding for both military operations and humanitarian assistance.
However, following the election of President Donald Trump, U.S. financial support for the FGS became increasingly uncertain. His administration introduced significant cuts to a wide range of foreign aid programs traditionally funded through USAID and related agencies. These shifts in U.S. foreign policy—marked by a sharp reduction in development and security assistance—have raised serious concerns about the long-term viability of Somalia’s current security framework. Compounding the issue is the uncertainty surrounding the European Union’s capacity or willingness to compensate for the resulting funding shortfall.
Security challenges
Al-Shabab insurgents have recently overrun a key Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) forward base in Aadan Yabaal, a town located approximately 200 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu. According to military sources, Aadan Yabaal was the largest army base and logistical hub outside the capital. Its capture—with little to no resistance—underscores two deeply troubling developments: the alarmingly low morale within the national armed forces and the growing confidence of Al-Shabab. The group now poses a credible threat to Mogadishu itself, casting serious doubt on the effectiveness of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s three-year campaign to defeat the insurgency—an effort increasingly viewed as wasted time. Mounting fears are emerging over the potential collapse of the security situation in the capital.
Political challenges
The FGS is facing these funding challenges at a time when its local support is rapidly deteriorating. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration is under increasing public criticism for its unilateral constitutional amendments in relation to the election process, its handling of disputes with some of the federal member states (FMS)s, and rampant corruption. The recent amendments to the provisional constitution require that power be transferred through a one-person, one-vote electoral system—an ambitious undertaking, considering that the next election is just over a year away, there is no electoral infrastructure in place, and the federal government's effective authority remains largely confined to Mogadishu.
What the president describes as a “one-person, one-vote” system is, in reality, a modest expansion of the existing so-called “Big Tent” process. Under the current model, each member of parliament is elected by 101 delegates handpicked by clan elders, who then gather in a tent and, within a matter of hours, elect the president. The president’s proposal merely increases the number of delegates, but falls far short of a genuinely representative electoral process. Adding to the skepticism are the growing chances that at least two federal member states will refuse to participate, coupled with logistical challenges and serious concerns about fairness—especially in light of irregularities in the last election. Given all this, and the president’s insistence on pushing the plan forward, one is left wondering whether it serves any real purpose beyond generating political noise rather than meaningful reform.
The consultative meeting
Amidst mounting security and funding challenges, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud cautiously rekindled hope on Eid Day (March 30, 2025) by calling for an inclusive national consultative meeting (Gogol) involving federal member states and other key political stakeholders. If conducted transparently and in good faith, the initiative could offer a critical opportunity to foster dialogue, bridge political divides, and build consensus on pressing national issues, including the electoral process. It may also provide a platform to forge a unified front against escalating security threats and to advance preparations for next year’s national elections.
However, deep-seated mistrust among political actors remains a major obstacle. Over the past three years, President Mohamud has faced widespread criticism for his “my way or the highway” leadership style, which has alienated both the public and many key stakeholders. Consequently, his recent call for dialogue has been met with cautious—and largely skeptical—optimism. To rebuild trust and create a productive environment for dialogue, the President must demonstrate a clear commitment to inclusivity, show genuine openness to opposing views, and exhibit both flexibility and a willingness to compromise in the pursuit of national consensus.
Key indicators for the success of the consultative meeting include:
- Ensuring broad, inclusive participation from all key stakeholders, especially those who have been critical of the federal government.
- Cultivating a genuine willingness among all parties to engage in constructive dialogue and make meaningful compromises.
- Producing tangible outcomes and actionable plans, rather than relying on symbolic gestures or vague resolutions.
Looming cost of inaction
Somalia's current political trajectory increasingly points towards failure. The inability to swiftly resolve the ongoing political crisis risks dire consequences, including widespread demoralization and a resurgent Al-Shabab. Emboldened by governmental paralysis, the group could expand its military control and present itself as a credible alternative to the Federal Government—a dangerous echo of the Syrian and Afghan experiences.
Key risks of inaction include:
- Escalating Political Tensions: Failure to resolve the current political deadlock and build broad consensus risks deepening existing divisions. This could lead to open conflict between the Federal Government and Federal Member States—especially those excluded from shaping the reconciliation agenda announced on April 5, 2025.
- Weakened Security Forces: Persistent political disunity undermines both the morale and effectiveness of national security forces, leaving them poorly positioned to counter Al-Shabab’s growing strength or prevent further territorial losses.
- Declining International Support: Continued political infighting is likely to erode international confidence, resulting in reduced financial and military assistance. Without sustained external support, the government would struggle to maintain basic operations and repel insurgent threats.
- Government Vulnerability: As internal cohesion deteriorates, the Federal Government’s capacity to govern effectively and defend itself becomes increasingly fragile.
Conclusions
Given the scale and urgency of Somalia’s intersecting crises—faltering legitimacy, declining international support, internal fragmentation, and rising insecurity—the path forward for the Federal Government is perilously narrow. Yet, the situation is not beyond redemption. The consultative meeting (Gogol) called by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud could offer a last, best chance to recalibrate Somalia’s political trajectory—if it is pursued with sincerity, inclusivity, and a genuine commitment to national reconciliation. This means moving beyond political theatrics and engaging all stakeholders in meaningful dialogue, grounded in transparency, compromise, and shared national interest. The cost of inaction—or of repeating past mistakes under the guise of reform—would be catastrophic, risking the further erosion of state authority and the possible resurgence of Al-Shabab as a viable political and military force. History will judge this moment not by intentions, but by tangible outcomes. The time for symbolic gestures has passed; Somalia now needs courageous leadership and a unified national vision to avert disaster.
Abdirashid Elmi, PhD:
Email:[email protected]
Mohamed Musa, PhD:
Email: [email protected]