Friday, October 26, 2012
By John Oywa
They may have been routed from their stronghold of Kismayo, but the Al Shabaab militants could be re-grouping for a major assault on Kenyan and the African Union forces.
Security analysts at the South African-based think tank – the Institute of Security Studies – are warning that the war against the terror group may be far from over.
In a report on conflict prevention and risk analysis in Africa released last week, the Pretoria-based group says the celebration over the fall of Kismayo may have been premature.
The report says all indications were that remnants of the terror group that have been targeting Kenya in its revenge attacks were planning a new round of war in their bid to retake the coastal city.
Kismayu fell under a cloud of gunfire last month when the Kenyan Defence Forces overran it, leaving hundreds of Al Shabaab fighters killed, wounded or captured.
The city, a priced catch for both the Kenyan and the African Union Forces (Amisom) was captured after months of aerial, land and naval assault on the militants.
But the ISS analysts are now calling for new tactics to stop the terror group from waging fresh battle.
Major onslaught
“While taking Kismayu represents a huge victory for Amisom, it does not mean that the threat of Al Shabaab has been eradicated,” says the report.
It adds: “There are indications that Al Shabaab is planning to resort to unconventional warfare methods, including deploying suicide bombers and other guerrilla tactics, to make the area ungovernable.”
The experts say the people of Kismayo remain concerned that Al-Shabaab has simply blended into the local population.
“They may be hesitant to show their support for Amisom, as this may unwittingly court a reprisal from Al Shabaab, putting their lives at risk. Now, however, the population is still gradually warming to Amisom’s presence,” they say.