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Winners and losers in Somalia war


Monday, October 08, 2012

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When our armed forces marched towards Somalia, I was worried by the mixed voices from politicians.

Some lauded and encouraged the forces; others taunted them for having remained idle for long. It was time they justified their pay, some observed.

In today’s peace-seeking world, our armies should be more of deterrent than attack units. It’s always a better world without war. War takes valued lives and resources. As our forces count victory, we are without some of our officers who gallantly lost lives in the war. Treasury will with time remind us about the budget deficit bequeathed us by this war. So going to war, even when most justifiable, must humble rather than elate us.

That said, with the recent victory, Kenya has made a big statement on the global scene. It’s good to appreciate the noble intentions of the US in an earlier intervention. But it failed badly and emboldened the warring groups. It’s good to appreciate the efforts of well-meaning regional states such as Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, and Burundi. They made good effort and sacrifices in trying to stabilise Somalia. But it’s Kenya’s entry that changed the game. The rest is history.

This has certainly upped Kenya’s image as a regional player and given it a big voice at the African Union and United Nations level too. And many military generals will henceforth want to study Kenya’s strategies in this war. The victory will see Kenya’s military forces deservedly celebrated and supported worldwide.

Lawless Somalia

But the war leaves losers. The biggest are the terrorist networks that thrived in lawless Somalia. The activities and trade links of these networks are grossly undermined in a stable Somalia. But the global community must learn lessons.

Never gain should any State be allowed to become totally failed. The vacuum becomes a threat to global peace. The Indian Ocean pirates who operated along Somalia’s coastline are second degree losers. This is good for world shipping.

Ships sailing in the Indian Ocean had got increasingly endangered as they entered the East African Coast. This escalated costs and occasioned delays or even shortages of some essential supplies. Piracy money is hence gone. Those of us in the real estate industry are happy to know that piracy proceeds will no longer influence property market rates in Kenya.

There are invisible losers too. Some businessmen in Eastleigh, Industrial Area, Nairobi’s and Mombasa’s CBD made fortunes out of contraband goods ferreted through the porous Somalia border. Many of these are counting loses.

Now the brighter side. Somalia’s systems and institutions must be rebuilt and maintained. Kenya stands the best chance for all manner of partnerships with the nascent State. Kenya’s vibrant private sector must rise and seize the new opportunity.

I expect, for instance, that Kenya’s military and police forces will take a lead in the training of forces for the new State. I expect our public sector to participate in the rebuilding of Somalia’s civil service. Kenya’s vibrant ICT and media industry should find expression in Somalia.

The financial industry, especially banking, has vast opportunity next door. Suppliers of essential goods, including agricultural produce, have wide latitude. And Kenya’s professionals have space in Somalia. Let’s use our skills to help establish and maintain a strong and stable neighbour.

 



 





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