BusinessDay
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Little good can come of it for Somalia. The absence of a properly functioning state in Somalia poses a security danger on its own. But the chance that the Islamists will regroup with foreign support and that clan violence will break out is now the real threat to the Horn of Africa. In the face of renewed uncertainty, clans in Mogadishu are re-arming and preparing to defend their turf.
The Ethiopian-led and US-backed overthrow of the Union of Islamic Courts and its replacement by the transitional government is no guarantee of stability. And the US attacks on sites where fleeing Somali Islamists and al-Qaeda operatives gathered could inflame the situation. The Islamists had been inching towards talks with the transitional government, but the US attacks could now strengthen the hands of extremists and their calls for jihad.
As a temporary member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, SA could be tempted to play a leading mediation role and provide troops for peacekeeping in Somalia. Government should be wary of any direct intervention in this cauldron — our immediate interests are not at stake here and we have too much to lose from a poorly conceived involvement.
Ethiopia — fully aware that its continued presence in Somalia is widely perceived as that of a foreign occupier — is keen to exit as quickly as possible. The African Union (AU) and the UN are proposing that an African peace force fill what they view as a security gap. African countries, fearful of the dangers of any entanglement in Somali clan politics, are justifiably cautious about any involvement.
So far Uganda is the only country that has said it will provide troops to a peace force for Somalia, but this is by no means certain as any decision will require parliamentary approval. SA, Nigeria, and Benin have been approached by the AU and have said they will consider it.
The entire concept of a peace- keeping force may be misconceived. The idea is that the force should help the interim government of President Abdullahi Yusuf provide security. But there’s a risk that such a force would be viewed by Somalis as taking the place of the Ethiopians, rather than as being neutral peacekeepers. SA has said it will insist on agreement among the clans before it agrees to become part of any peace mission for Somalia. The question then becomes what sort of agreement is possible and whether it will be a durable one.
Somali clans have traditional procedures for reaching agreement on contentious issues, although it has not helped them form a government for the past 15 years. Foreign intervention may have also disrupted the homegrown process, but the agreement of clans and their elders is a prerequisite to the formation of any functioning government.
Any such agreement will be a difficult exercise in the absence of a group that has credibility as a mediator. The AU has backed the transitional government and has, through its silence, sided with Ethiopia on its intervention. Somalis are likely to be suspicious of any mediation moves or any peace force coming from its neighbours. The further question that has to be raised is, if indeed the Somali clans can reach an accord, why do they need a peacekeeping force?
In the face of growing international pressure for an African peacekeeping force, SA and others on the continent must be mindful of the huge challenges such a mission would pose. Many in Africa will be mindful of the failed attempt by US and UN peacekeepers to bring about order when anarchy broke out in 1991.
If it is to have any chance of success, it will have to support a national reconciliation process rather than propping up the government. Ultimately, the solution to Somalia’s problems will have to come from within the country itself.
Source: Business Day, Jan 11, 2007