Main Developments

Heavy fighting in Somalia entered its eighth day today, with TFG/Ethiopian forces taking Jowhar  (Middle Shabelle) from the ICU. TFG/Ethiopia forces are reportedly moving forward from Dinsor towards Buale, and from Burhakaba towards Lower Shabelle. ICU forces are said to be retreating from Kismayo to Mogadishu. Ethiopia conducted limited air strikes on the airports in Mogadishu and Baledogle (100km northwest of Mogadishu) on 25 December. TFG forces and their allies have now taken control of several areas from the ICU, including the towns of Bandiradley (Galkayo), Beletweyne and Bulo Burti (Hiran), and Dinsor and Burhakaba (Bay). Although numbers of casualties resulting from the recent fighting are difficult to confirm, according to ICRC there have been over 800 war-wounded in southern Somalia since the intensification of conflict began on 19 December.

Lower and Middle Juba are said to be calm, as are Somaliland and Puntland in the north. However, protection and security concerns exist in relation to the potential influx of IDPs into the north, especially with regard to Puntland.

Displacement

Conflict-related displacement has so far been short-term and largely internal, with people moving within districts where conflict is occurring, returning to their homes when conflict ceases. No large-scale influx of asylum seekers into Kenya has been reported, though this is expected to change. Conflict and bad road conditions (due to recent flooding) are likely limiting cross-border movement. UNHCR Kenya is in discussions with Kenyan authorities on creating additional capacity in Kenya to absorb a surge in refugees.

Large-scale displacement is now being reported in various locations. An estimated 3,000 displaced families arrived in south Galkayo (Mudug) in the last two weeks – with 1,000 of these having arrived in the last seven days. There is additional displacement into north Galkayo although numbers are unconfirmed. Elsewhere in Mudug, the coastal district of Jariban is said to be receiving about 1,000 IDPs from Beletweyne. Jariban is difficult to access and there is no potable water for the IDPs.

Movement of as many as 9,000 people has been reported from Bay region towards the Shabelles, Buale (Middle Juba), and particularly Mogadishu. Beletweyne (Hiran), where recently flood-displaced people had begun returning to their homes, has registered renewed displacement. It is estimated that between 30% of residents remain locally displaced. In Bay, movement is also being reported from Burhakaba and Idale to various points, though exact figures are unconfirmed.

Access and Response

Security and access permitting, UN agencies and partner NGOs will attempt to build on the ongoing flood response to deliver assistance to new IDPs and conflict-affected populations. However, the outbreak of fighting is severely undermining access to affected populations and provision of assistance, as security concerns are now overlaid onto flooding. The Jowhar-Beletweyne-Galkayo road is said to be blocked and insecure to travel. Two WFP helicopters stationed in Kismayo that were being used for the flood response have been moved to Kenya and air drops have been temporarily suspended. The TFG announced the closure of Somalia’s international borders on security grounds, which has effectively resulted in a suspension of humanitarian flights into Somalia. The Office of the UN Resident/Humanitarian Coordinator is optimistic that humanitarian flights into Somalia will resume shortly.

Meanwhile, plans for humanitarian assistance to IDPs are underway. Pending receipt of written approval from the TFG, WFP cargo flights to Kismayo and other flood-affected regions will resume. Priority areas for intervention have been identified as Galkayo, Beletweyne, Mogadishu and Kismayo. In Galkayo, health, water/sanitation, and shelter are urgently needed. In Beletweyne, water/sanitation remains the most serious concern, while in Mogadishu, health and water/sanitation are prioritized.