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DADAAB, Kenya, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The number of Somali refugees fleeing into Kenya could reach 80,000 by the end of the year if tensions worsen in the Horn of Africa country, which many fear could spiral into war, a U.N. official warned.
"Potentially, we are sitting on a time bomb in terms of the number of refugees who might be coming from Somalia if events take a turn for the worse," Geoff Wordley, a senior emergency officer for the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR and officer in charge of the Dadaab refugee camps in northeastern Kenya, told Reuters late on Wednesday.
"We could be looking at something approaching 80,000. There is a possibility we could be looking at those figures if this situation continues to deteriorate ... That's a lot of people, a huge strain on the resources of this area."
About 35,000 Somalis escaping drought, strict Islamist rule and the possibility of war have arrived in the Dadaab camps so far this year with tales of violence and hardship amid a stand-off between the Western-backed government and rival Islamists who control Mogadishu and a swathe of the south.
The flow of refugees has increased to more than 1,000 a day in the past week from 200 every few days in August, amid reports of further advances by the Islamists and counter-attacks by the government and ousted warlords.
Influxes into Dadaab have coincided with Islamist territorial gains, notably the takeover of Kismayu port last month. Aid workers fear more arrivals could overwhelm efforts to provide sufficient food and shelter.
"The fear of a hot war with heavy artillery and involving armies, and particularly the Ethiopians, seems to be driving people out," Wordley said.
The Islamists have declared holy war against Ethiopia, which they accuse of invading Somalia to back its shaky government. Addis Ababa denies the claim.
Citing an example of a Somali woman forced to be fully covered by the Islamists and beaten when she looked one in the eye, Wordley said some refugees were complaining of the imposition of strict sharia rule.
About 162,000 people live in Dadaab, 100 kms (60 miles) from the Somali border, in flimsy shacks on sandy terrain.
The refugees are split between three sub-camps in flat, barren land strewn with thorn bushes.
"At the rate of arrival that we have right now we will quickly exhaust the spare capacity that we have in the camps. A decision will have to be made very soon about building a new camp," Wordley said.
Source: Reuters, Oct. 12, 2006